How realistic is hyperbitcoinization (a tipping point where people start a rush to exit fiat for bitcoin in a fiat devaluation event http://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/hyperbitcoinization/). Let's look at some global monetary and gold statistics.
Some talk about bitcoin perhaps one day matching or passing gold market cap. https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/70z6p0/if_you_do_the_math_a_single_btc_is_more_than_200/dn7ikck/
at $4400 which Bitcoin has been above for some of this month, it already reached around 1% of gold market cap.
But what other global targets are there for comparison. Globally, all paper currency and coins are valued around $5 trillion - at $4400 Bitcoin was already 1.5% of that.
Paper currency plus bank balances and savings value around $90 trillion - so if Bitcoin got to $50k/BTC (10x recent bitcoin highs) bitcoin would be valued 1% of all money!
So where is the tipping point - where people sit up and take notice - I'm not sure, but 1.5% of all physical currency is already pretty interesting. What happens if/when Bitcoin gets to 10%? Which then gets within reach of 1% of money of physical and bank deposits/savings globally. At some point there has to be a tipping point where money leaving accelerates for fear of falling fiat and we see the adoption S-curve play-out http://www.uversity.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/Communication-Technology-Adoption-Peter-Leyden.png
The ETFs and institutional money have barely started yet, and historically gold price was influenced by the introduction of ETFs http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-gold-etfs-have-transformed-market-in-10-years-2013-03-29
So will hyperbitcoinization happen, who knows. But the possibility is maybe not so far-fetched. It seems that bitcoin price news itself drives financial and other media interest - though maybe for reasons not so exposed to Bitcoin's value position.
(Some data from http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/ and https://www.reddit.com/Bitcoin/comments/70z6p0/if_you_do_the_math_a_single_btc_is_more_than_200/dn7ikck/)
What would a stable post S-curve adoption price look like economically or geopolitically?
Interesting questions. As we've seen in the eurozone it can be difficult for countries, like Greece, to have a single currency but divergent economic policy - with the Drachma in previous economic downturns, they had been able to exploit a weak exchange rate to rebound by exporting their way out of recession. On the other end we've seen Iceland currency drop 60% https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/06/17/the-miraculous-story-of-iceland/?utm_term=.5461176249e9 and recover faster. An interesting alternative or future strategy proposed by Icelander Sveinn Valfells was that Iceland adopt Bitcoin as a currency - with it's cheap geothermal power it has unique advantages for Bitcoin mining. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/245327990_Bitcoin_for_Microstates_-_How_Iceland_could_adopt_Bitcoin
Sveinn Valfells, PhD & J on Helgi Egilsson Minting Money With Megawatts Presented at Scaling Bitcoin, Montreal September 13, 2015 2 / 16. How to Mine Bitcoin Pro tably Outline 1 How to Mine Bitcoin Pro tably 2 About the Authors 3 Appendix Sveinn Valfells, PhD & J on Helgi Egilsson Minting Money With Megawatts Presented at Scaling Bitcoin, Montreal September 13, 2015 3 / 16. How to Mine Bitcoin ... The economist Sveinn Valfells has an unusual proposition: Bitcoin should become the Icelandic national currency. At Bitcoin London 2013, Valfells explained that Iceland is an extremely wealthy ... Helga Valfells founded Crowberry Capital ehf. Currently, Ms. Valfells is Chairman at Lucinity Group ehf and Founding & Managing Partner at Crowberry Capital ehf. She is also on the board of Síminn hf... On the other hand, Sveinn Valfells, Monerium CEO, asserted that the successful transaction came in handy in showing blockchain’s capabilities. Valfells stipulated: “As the first company authorized to issue e-money on blockchains, we are delighted to demonstrate the benefits of blockchains for mainstream B2B transactions using a legal form of digital money.” 21/08/2020 Trending Bitcoin News and Market Sentiment, Weekly Edition August 21st, 2020: Bitcoin Defi Enters the Fray, US Regulator Pinpoints Fintech Potential in Legacy Banking 20/08/2020
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